When a presidential race that was supposed to be won by a mainstream moderate instead ends being captured by a far-right gadfly, you better believe pollsters are gonna get some scrutiny. But when this situation took place in the first round of French elections in 2002, bumping the incumbent prime minister from the final round, it wasn’t just the failure of prediction that led to a polling protest. Instead, people were concerned that opinion polling, itself, had caused the outcome.
During 2019, QBE’s net Australia-Pacific cost of catastrophe claims jumped to $193 million from $106 million the year before, led by unprecedented floods in Australia’s north east coast and horrendous bushfires across the country’s south east.
When the Iowa caucuses went to hell in a handbasket last week, they probably took some of Americans’ last morsels of trust in the political system down too. But when I asked political scientists and psychologists about the impact of the bungled caucuses on overall political cynicism, they, by and large, weren’t particularly concerned. The vast majority of voters probably won’t care all that much, they said; instead, these experts are more worried about the indirect effects. Long after the shoddy apps have been forgotten, mistrust and bitterness could still be trickling down from political elites to everyone else.
The S&P BSE Sensex Index was little changed at 41,270.37 as of 9:43 a.m. in Mumbai after rising as much as 0.4% and falling as much as 0.3%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index was also flat after swinging between the same range.
Fires, floods, polar vortexes and hurricanes — every season brings another disaster seemingly linked to climate change. But natural disasters happened before climate change, too. So how are we supposed to know which disasters are fated because of the stars, and which are fated because of 100 years of global CO2 emissions?
The People’s Bank of China offered 200 billion yuan ($29 billion) of one-year medium-term loans on Monday. The rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.15%, the lowest since 2017. The central bank also added 100 billion yuan of funds via 7-day reverse repurchase agreements, resulting in a net 700 billion yuan withdrawal of money from markets as some 1 trillion yuan of reverse repos matured on Monday.
This summer, we asked readers to send us their climate change questions. And they did. We received many, many, many climate change questions. So many, in fact, that we’re doing several different projects around them. You’ve seen our columns on Who’s Winning Climate Change? Today, we’re diving into the mailbag for another edition of Climate Question from an Adult – a series that will explore the business, culture and chemistry behind your most pressing questions about global warming. Have a question? Send it to us!
For a newsroom like FiveThirtyEight’s, 2019 may as well been part of 2020. Such is the peril of covering electoral politics. But before 2020 actually arrives, we wanted to take a moment and remember some of our favorite features from the past year that the news cycle hasn’t rendered obsolete. There was a lot of good stuff! This isn’t a comprehensive list, but it’s a good place to start.
Because very few national polls were released after Iowa, we’ve been eagerly awaiting Monmouth University’s latest national poll even as ballots are cast in New Hampshire. That data has now been incorporated into the model, and with just a few hours until the first polling places close, we’ve frozen the forecast — candidates’ odds won’t update and no new information will be added until after New Hampshire results are available.
While in New Hampshire, our fearless podcast host and reporter, Galen Druke, interviewed a number of voters about who they’d be voting for in the state’s primary, along with their hopes and fears for the future. Here are four of our favorite conversations.